April 26, 2009

Is There Too Much Violence...

...in Today's Dreams?

Graphics and language not for everyone.

Via Radley Balko.

Posted by Steve on April 26, 2009

Your Legislators Would Never Lie to You

Or would they?

But a professor at Oxford University in England has done a compelling series of studies trying to get at why big public-works projects such as bridges, tunnels and light-rail systems almost always turn out to be far more costly than estimated.

"It cannot be explained by error," sums up one of his* papers, matter-of-factly. "It is best explained by strategic misrepresentation — that is, lying."

Don't think for a minute that this problem is limited to large public-works projects.

It permeates every branch of government and every political party.

It's not just that they don't know what they are doing:

It's not technical challenges or complexity or bad luck, he asserts. If that were so, you'd get more variation in how it all turns out. He concludes the backers of these projects suffer from two main maladies.

One is "delusional optimism" — they want it so badly, they can't see its flaws. I know about this firsthand from when I supported the monorail.

The second is worse: They knowingly are lying to the public.

Large public-works projects are small compared to wars and massive social programs and the same maladies apply.

*The person referred to is Bent Flyvbjerg. See here and here for more detailed information

Posted by Steve on April 26, 2009

April 25, 2009

Clarifying Middle Class

Here is a chart that makes clear exactly what being middle class means in terms of income: an average annual household after tax income for the middle fifth of households in 2006 of $52,100. Simple interpolation suggests that the top of the middle income group is around $62,950.

Yglesias thinks the chart as a whole implies that:

...the trend is unmistakable. Higher taxes, more transfers, and more government services.
This is undoubtedly true as long as so many believe that government's role, as our politicians state repeatedly, is focused on protecting and assisting those in the lower 2-3 quintiles.

The chart makes makes a pretty good case, though, that government actions have been around protecting and enhancing the wealth and power of that upper 20% and most particularly the upper 1%.

More taxes, transfers and services are palliatives applied to win votes and do little, if anything, to fix the structural problems that lead to such a poor distribution of income.

The only effective way to make the results among the quintiles more equal will be to change the structure of the economy so that the top 1% is no longer favored. This will require eliminating the extensive government interventions that feed the wealthy on the backs of the poor; on the backs, if you will, of the lower 90+%.

Posted by Steve on April 25, 2009

April 24, 2009

Friday Ark #240

We'll post links to sites that have Friday (plus or minus a few days) photos of their chosen animals (photoshops at our discretion and humans only in supporting roles). Watch the Exception category for rocks, beer, coffee cups, and....?

Visit all the boarders, Link to the Ark and check back for updates through Sunday afternoon!

You can board the Friday Ark by submitting your post here, leaving a comment or a trackback to this post or emailing fridayark AT themodulator.org.

You can find previous editions at the not quite up to date Arkives page.

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In Memoriam

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Extra, Extra: All Ark boarders are invited to shout out at the Friday Ark Frapper Map.

Cat folks: remember to submit your links to:

Birders: I and the Bird: A Blog Carnival for Bird Lovers is published every 2 weeks.

For the spineless: Circus of the Spineless. A monthly celebration of Insects, Arachnids, Molluscs, Crustaceans, Worms and most anything else that wiggles.

Dog folks: remember to submit your links to:

  • The Canine Carnival hosted by Pamibe last year is on hiatus an looking for a new sponsor
  • The Carnival of the Dogs hosted by Mickey's Musings
    • has been out of operation since July 2007

For other current carnivals check out The Blog Carnival and The TTLB Uber Carnival

Posted by Steve on April 24, 2009 | Comments (5)

April 22, 2009

PBS Video is Now Online

This makes me happy!

Lots of good stuff here that I can now easily go back and watch!

Posted by Steve on April 22, 2009

April 21, 2009

Soros Becomes Incoherent

In a recent Business Week interview George Soros explained the financial collapse:

Basically, this whole financial system collapsed because regulators failed to regulate. There was a belief that markets are self-correcting. That turned out to be wrong.
Well, markets are self-correcting.

As we know the correction can be pretty dramatic when a government created system blows a massive bubble.

The market will pop it. Violently.

Unfortunately, folks didn't like the medicine this time so we have additional massive intervention. Let's hope the market can deal with it and things don't get drastically worse.

Soros recommends some additional prescriptions:

So it's not enough to regulate the money supply. You have to regulate credit. And you have to recognize that markets are prone to create asset bubbles and accept the responsibility of preventing those bubbles from becoming too big and self-reinforcing, because that's what a bubble is—a self-reinforcing process.
Except that all the really cool bubbles over time have been driven by government enabled rent seeking. Even the tulip bubble likely would never have occurred without the wealth derived from a government created monopoly, the Dutch East India Company.

Next Soros starts talking in circles:

You also have to recognize that if the markets don't know what equilibrium is, then regulators can't possibly know either. So you have to accept that regulators will be wrong. But with the benefit of feedback from the market, you can judge whether you've done too much or too little.
Where to start? If everything were to stay at equilibrium nothing happens and Soros makes no money. That might not be a bad thing but it isn't at all clear that anyone will be very happy in that state.

Let's look at George's wisdom again and assume that equilibrium is a meaningful goal. What is George telling us: markets don't know where the goal is; regulators can't know where the goal is; therefore regulators will be wrong; but the market knows something that can guide the regulators; therefore we can figure out whether you have deviated an unknown amount from an unknowable goal. QED, we need more regulators.

Give me a break.

Here's a shorter George Soros: let's have lots of regulators because I know they will screw up the market and over the long run I can make money off their mistakes.

Let's just not go there, please.

Posted by Steve on April 21, 2009

April 20, 2009

NPR?

Is it National Public Radio or National Pandering Radio?

Today NPR broadcast another story on the drug war; this time around the idea of marijuana legalization. The story does little more than pander to the thugs and criminals who make their living from the drug war.

No, I do not mean those nasty cartels.

I mean the federal, state and local government infrastructure that thrives on the so called drug war.

End this war and not only will a dent be put into the cartels operation but we will be able to undo great swathes of government.

Republicans and democrats alike support things like the drug war. Republicans because it is a way to increase the presence of the police state under the guise of law and order. Democrats because, well, the drug war to them is a wonderful tool to expand their precious government: more police, more jails, more clogged courtrooms, more programs for this and for that.

I listen to NPR a lot. There really aren't any consistently good alternatives if you want a heavy dose of news and insightful talk (lots of the latter on KUOW).

Unfortunately on issues like the drug war, the Iraq war, the Afghanistan War, the financial meltdown, etc., NPR parses closer to the line of the DC administration du jour than either the left or the right would like to admit.

At least it is not the blatant ideological drivel that so often pops up on left and right talk radio.

Via Radley Balko.

Posted by Steve on April 20, 2009

April 16, 2009

Friday Ark #239

We'll post links to sites that have Friday (plus or minus a few days) photos of their chosen animals (photoshops at our discretion and humans only in supporting roles). Watch the Exception category for rocks, beer, coffee cups, and....?

Visit all the boarders, Link to the Ark and check back for updates through Sunday afternoon!

You can board the Friday Ark by submitting your post here, leaving a comment or a trackback to this post or emailing fridayark AT themodulator.org.

You can find previous editions at the not quite up to date Arkives page.

Cats

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In Memoriam

  • x

Didn't Make It

  • x

Exceptions (inclusion not guaranteed)

Extra, Extra: All Ark boarders are invited to shout out at the Friday Ark Frapper Map.

Cat folks: remember to submit your links to:

Birders: I and the Bird: A Blog Carnival for Bird Lovers is published every 2 weeks.

For the spineless: Circus of the Spineless. A monthly celebration of Insects, Arachnids, Molluscs, Crustaceans, Worms and most anything else that wiggles.

Dog folks: remember to submit your links to:

  • The Canine Carnival hosted by Pamibe last year is on hiatus an looking for a new sponsor
  • The Carnival of the Dogs hosted by Mickey's Musings
    • has been out of operation since July 2007

For other current carnivals check out The Blog Carnival and The TTLB Uber Carnival

Posted by Steve on April 16, 2009 | Comments (3)

M4M Stands For...

Maddow explains:

Via Ed Drayton.

Posted by Steve on April 16, 2009 | Comments (1)

Colbert Meets His Match

No, more than his match: Sherman Alexie drives Colbert to silence:

It's from last fall and just hilarious.

Via Mrs. Modulator.

Posted by Steve on April 16, 2009

April 14, 2009

Sandra Oh Reads Emma Goldman

Unfortunately, as true today as it was then:


Via a Brad Spangler tweet.

Posted by Steve on April 14, 2009 | Comments (2)

April 12, 2009

Judge, Judge,...

It wasn't Me!...

Like Balko said, "Best. Excuse. Ever."

Posted by Steve on April 12, 2009

Twittering

Yea, I'm going to add to the pile.

For those so inclined you can follow me.

Posted by Steve on April 12, 2009 | Comments (1)

April 10, 2009

The Dead Are About to Start Their Tour

And the New York Times has found the Grateful Dead.

While the discussion is fun I'm not sure trying to pick their best show is ultimately productive; there were so many great ones.

Barton Hall, 5-8-77, is certainly a great listen. From ambiance to music 9/2/72 in Veneta, Or is my favorite. Perhaps the Sunshine Daydream videos will get a real release some day.

A mostly unnoted favorite of mine is 9-2-83, Boise, Idaho. Yea, another September 2nd show...go figure.

They had just spent 3 night in Eugene playing in the small Hult Center (great acoustics) and just exploded from beginning to end in the much larger Boise State Pavilion.

Update (4/10): You can pre-order downloads of all the shows on the tour; even all 29 shows as complete sets in either MP3 or FLAC. I can't afford the whole set this year but I will pick up at least a couple shows for the library.

Update 2 (4/10): A nice story on the Wall of Sound.

Posted by Steve on April 10, 2009 | Comments (2)

Friday Ark #238

We'll post links to sites that have Friday (plus or minus a few days) photos of their chosen animals (photoshops at our discretion and humans only in supporting roles). Watch the Exception category for rocks, beer, coffee cups, and....?

Visit all the boarders, Link to the Ark and check back for updates through Sunday afternoon!

You can board the Friday Ark by submitting your post here, leaving a comment or a trackback to this post or emailing fridayark AT themodulator.org.

You can find previous editions at the not quite up to date Arkives page.

Cats

Other Vertebrates

Dogs

Birds

Invertebrates

In Memoriam

Didn't Make It

Exceptions (inclusion not guaranteed)

  • x

Extra, Extra: All Ark boarders are invited to shout out at the Friday Ark Frapper Map.

Cat folks: remember to submit your links to:

Birders: I and the Bird: A Blog Carnival for Bird Lovers is published every 2 weeks.

For the spineless: Circus of the Spineless. A monthly celebration of Insects, Arachnids, Molluscs, Crustaceans, Worms and most anything else that wiggles.

Dog folks: remember to submit your links to:

  • The Canine Carnival hosted by Pamibe last year is on hiatus an looking for a new sponsor
  • The Carnival of the Dogs hosted by Mickey's Musings
    • has been out of operation since July 2007

For other current carnivals check out The Blog Carnival and The TTLB Uber Carnival

Posted by Steve on April 10, 2009 | Comments (5)

April 3, 2009

Friday Ark #237

We'll post links to sites that have Friday (plus or minus a few days) photos of their chosen animals (photoshops at our discretion and humans only in supporting roles). Watch the Exception category for rocks, beer, coffee cups, and....?

Visit all the boarders, Link to the Ark and check back for updates through Sunday afternoon!

You can board the Friday Ark by submitting your post here, leaving a comment or a trackback to this post or emailing fridayark AT themodulator.org.

You can find previous editions at the not quite up to date Arkives page.

ALERT- 11:30 MDT 2009-04-03 We will be offline until tonight and will get everyone else boarded then.

ALERT- 10:00 MDT 2009-04-04 We will be offline until tonight and will get the rest of our Saturday friends boarded then.

Cats

Other Vertebrates

Birds

Dogs

Invertebrates

In Memoriam

  • x

Didn't Make It

Exceptions (inclusion not guaranteed)

Extra, Extra: All Ark boarders are invited to shout out at the Friday Ark Frapper Map.

Cat folks: remember to submit your links to:

Birders: I and the Bird: A Blog Carnival for Bird Lovers is published every 2 weeks.

For the spineless: Circus of the Spineless. A monthly celebration of Insects, Arachnids, Molluscs, Crustaceans, Worms and most anything else that wiggles.

Dog folks: remember to submit your links to:

  • The Canine Carnival hosted by Pamibe last year is on hiatus an looking for a new sponsor
  • The Carnival of the Dogs hosted by Mickey's Musings
    • has been out of operation since July 2007

For other current carnivals check out The Blog Carnival and The TTLB Uber Carnival

Posted by Steve on April 3, 2009 | Comments (5)

April 2, 2009

A Lesson obama Could Learn From roosevelt

As they continue enforcing failed policies of their predecessors the obama administration continues to look in a dark hole for answers:

The Obama administration's top cops and their Mexican counterparts are looking for ways to stop arms smuggling across the border as well as new strategies for fighting the drug cartels that have fueled violence in both countries.
There may not be anything roosevelt can teach obama about dealing with an economic crisis but obama and his administration should be able to learn from the great failure that was righted during the roosevelt administration:


Ending the drug war may not create as many jobs as the above video suggests would be created by ending prohibition but it may certainly end a bunch of useless jobs:

As Webb pointed out in a cover story in Parade magazine, the U.S. is, by far, the most "criminal" country in the world, with 5% of the world's population and 25% of its prisoners. We spend $68 billion per year on corrections, and one-third of those being corrected are serving time for nonviolent drug crimes. We spend about $150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all arrests are marijuana-related.
As Klein says in this article:
That is an awful lot of money, most of it nonfederal, that could be spent on better schools or infrastructure — or simply returned to the public
Heck, perhaps the police could even do something about protecting the public from real crimes with the extra time they would have on their hands; perhaps the judicial system could take steps toward becoming affordable and responsive to the public it is supposed to serve, you know, resolving cases in weeks or months instead of months and years.

Klein's argument of potential massive tax windfalls is probably wildly overstated:

It is estimated that pot is the largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion. A 10% pot tax would yield $1.4 billion in California alone.
Take away law enforcement's inflated estimates and take away the risk premium and watch that cash crop value drop 50% or more.

The US can end the carnage in Mexico easily. End the drug war and as the last phrase in this History Channel video says: the gangster era of the twenties is over.

In this case it will be the gangster era the past 50 years.

Posted by Steve on April 2, 2009

A Dead Letter

Darwin, Poe and Carrie Laben discuss the theme of I and the Bird #97 hosted at Great Auk - or Greatest Auk?.

Fly on in and enjoy both the discussion and the chirpin'.

Posted by Steve on April 2, 2009