Economics


Why did so many buy into the 90s stock bubble?

Jane Galt looks at the stock market bubble of the late ’90s and why so many supposedly bright folks lost their nest eggs. She proposes, in essence, that some nifty (in some applications) evolutionary programming overpowered our supposed rationality:

Seriously, think about the way evolution has programmed us to learn.
We are, by nature, fearful beings. But fear will only get you so far in this imperfect world, and so nature has also equipped many of us with a modicum of courage and a taste for novelty. Those people try new things. If disaster doesn’t ensue, they try them again. If that works out, they do it a third time. Each time they lose a little more fear . . . and a few more, slightly less courageous people are encouraged to try it, having seen it work for the “thought leaders”. After the eighth or twentieth repetition, the entire tribe is eating pterodactyl steak or riding railroads or investing in the stockmarket.
We are programmed to lose a little more fear every time we are successful — to worry less about the risks. It’s a heuristic that allows pre-rational animals to function pretty well in a universe of many unknowns.
But it has its costs. And I’d argue that speculative bubbles are one of them.

There is a lot more so head on over and check it out.
Rip Rowan thinks this article is interesting but not quite on the mark:

The problem with Galt’s analysis is this: stock market bubbles are not irrational. They are perfectly rational responses to perfectly rational conditions.
The rational condition is easy to understand: new, discontinuous technologies (for example, the advent of the Internet and new biotechnology possibilities opened up by the unraveling of the human genome) created an environment in which the market was forced to react to possibly revolutionary changes in the business environment with extremely poor information on the short- and long-term impacts of those technologies.

Hmmmm, pretty hard to make rational decisions with ‘extremely poor information.’ While the bubble itself may have been a rational response I think Jane’s argument that “investors in the late 1990’s had completely slipped their cams” is pretty solid.
There are some additional comments on the article here, here and here.


Reason’s List

Yea, I know this is the 3rd list in a row. It’s just the way the day has been going.
Reason Magazine pays tribute:

…to some of the people who have made the world a freer, better, and more libertarian place by example, invention, or action. The one criterion: Honorees needed to have been alive at some point during reason�s run, which began in May 1968. The list is by design eclectic, irreverent, and woefully incomplete, but it limns the many ways in which the world has only gotten groovier and groovier during the last 35 years.

I found this one most entertaining:

John Ashcroft. If Donny and Marie Osmond were a little bit country and a little bit rock �n� roll, the current attorney general is little bit J. Edgar Hoover and a little bit Janet Reno. Whether it�s prosecuting medical marijuana users, devoting scarce resources to arresting adult porn distributors, or using tax dollars to create USA PATRIOT Act propaganda Web sites, Ashcroft has managed to create an unprecedented coalition of conservatives, liberals, and libertarians around a single noble cause: the protection of civil liberties.

Via AnarCapLib.


Two faces of Michael Powell

Yesterday Michael Powell said the following (PDF) in remarks opening a forum on Voice over IP:

As one who believes unflinchingly in maintaining an Internet free from government regulation, I believe that IP-based services such as VOIP should evolve in a regulation-free zone.
No regulator, either federal or state, should tread into this area without an absolutely compelling justification for doing so.

This is the same guy that recently supported the implementation of the broadcast flag and willingly accepts it as his duty to use regulation to push the implementation of HDTV which may be nifty high quality but, nevertheless, should be left to find its own way in the market. We will either embrace it or ignore it.
Something that could bring the development of VoIP to a grinding halt is this push (requires free registration) by the FBI and the Justice Department to have the FCC assure that they will be able to eavesdrop on our VoIP calls:

The FBI and Justice Department want the FCC to classify Internet-based telephony as a traditional telecommunications service, which would subject it to federal laws requiring carriers or software companies “to develop intercept solutions for lawful electronic surveillance.”

It is time to just say no to these folks.
Via beSpacific here and here.
Update (12/3): For more on the FCC’s VoIP forum see The Knowledge Problem.


Out of Whack Compensation

This guy was fired for cause and will apparently still make out like a bandit:

Boeing says neither ousted executive will receive severance pay beyond options and share grants that have already vested. Sears, who began working for Boeing’s McDonnell Douglas unit in 1969, will receive a pension at age 65 valued at between $672,000 and $840,000 a year, according to a company filing.

Too bad he will have to wait 9 years to start skimming this cream.
NB: I’d love to retire with that kind of income but my 401k won’t even have an asset value equal to one years worth of this dude’s take home.


Immigration Failure

Current immigration law and enforcement appear to be an utter failure. Jeanne D’Arc points out that:

Between 1994 and 2002, we spent $20 billion militarizing our southern border and trying to keep out or send back immigrants, and it’s hard to see that as anything but a complete waste of money.

and looks at an alternative approach to discussing the issue:

I wondered if maybe there was another way to frame the issue: Should we continue to pour massive ammounts of money into a policy that clearly doesn’t work (and also kills people)? Should we give up? Or should we spend that money in ways that will improve life for people in Mexico so that they aren’t forced to come here to work? What good could we do with $20 billion over the next eight years?

Perhaps money will talk. This same approach is starting to make inroads against the drug wars.